TABB Group Forecasts Monthly Novation of Credit Default Swap (CDS) Trades to Exceed $45.2 Trillion by 2010

Eighteen years after the credit default swap (CDS) was created to help firms hedge against the risk of default of a given asset, TABB Group estimates that the average notional value at risk (the total value of a leveraged position's assets) of trades novated monthly will exceed $45.2 trillion by 2010, an 88% CAGR (compound average growth rate) from 2005.

Kevin McPartland, senior analyst and author of the new TABB Group research report "Credit Default Swaps: The Risk of Inefficient Markets," said in a press release that 90% of all CDS trades are confirmed electronically, but same-day matching of new trades and novations is rare and error rates are unacceptably high. "This is a lot of money to risk on a phone call," he added. TABB Group forecasts that nearly $170 million will be spent in 2010 by major sell-side broker-dealers to automate the affirmation process and mitigate the potential risk resulting from trade exceptions.

Despite current available technology, details of most CDS trades are still not affirmed between counterparties on trade date. The delay is not in legally confirming or settling trades, but simply in agreeing that each party recorded the same basic trade details such as the reference entity or notional amount. Where overnight batch jobs were once accepted solutions, with 2008 trading volumes and market volatility levels, explains McPartland in the release, "the risk created by not understanding your market and counterparty exposure until the next morning makes this standard practice rather unacceptable."