February 21, 2013

Europe is still showing a rebound as the data continues to improve. The turnaround in European manufacturing has spread from Germany to Switzerland, France and Italy. Sadly, our readings on the Greek economy remain awful. Greece must keep getting support from its larger European Union sister states.

India's infrastructure build-out has started gaining steam again and we are seeing some positive signs out of the Chinese consumer. A turn in China would be extremely beneficial to the world, especially Latin America. Latin America has already started seeing some benefits from the jump in industrial and copper demand. Even Argentina's consumer has started to show life recently.

We are seeing a fragmented recovery out of the United States. Housing is definitely leading the charge, which bodes well for the long-term strength of the overall economy. Real Estate is helping a number of other industries with its rise, including home furnishings, basic materials, industrial equipment and specialized tools.

Meanwhile, the hotel industry is also seeing increased demand, as are casinos, which is having a positive affect on gaming. General leisure spending in the US is increasing significantly in a number of areas, including recreational vehicles and sporting goods. On the negative side, we continue to remain skeptical of US Government debt and we would prefer to look towards a higher paying Ohio or California municipal debt and corporate debt from the financial sector.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alexander Fleiss serves as Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Rebellion Research Partners LP, a Global Macro hedge fund and financial advisory that invests across all asset classes and is ...