Wall Street & Technology: Blog
subscribe September 26, 2006

Could Technology Have Prevented the Amaranth Blowup?

By Tim Clark, Wall Street & Technology

As federal regulators begin to investigate the catastrophic blowup of hedge fund Amaranth Advisors—whose $6 billion in losses resulted from bad bets on natural gas futures—the industry at large is scratching its head as to why the fund adopted such a risky investment strategy to begin with. This begs the question: Could technology, risk management or otherwise, have prevented the Amaranth debacle?

Industry pundits believe the right technology and metrics could have prevented huge losses at Amaranth, even if the fund was comfortable with the high degree of risk it was taking.

“It does make us wonder what risk management measures were in place at the fund and what technology was being employed to oversee and control the risk,” says TowerGroup analyst Matt Nelson. “But the truth of the matter is that there are some scenarios that you can’t model for, and it’s possible that they may have been comfortable with their risk exposure, based on historical data that indicated to them that the prices would converge.”

But those prices never did converge, thus draining Amaranth of more than 60 percent of its assets this month. Surprisingly, Amaranth is still standing and its founder, Nicholas Maounis, claims his firm will remain solvent. Maounis said in a Sept. 20 letter to investors that Amaranth has been able to meet its margin calls, which means that deposits with brokers haven't fallen below the minimum requirement to cover the fund’s bets.

“Regardless, we do expect to see increased spending on risk management and derivatives technology, but we would honestly have expected that increase in the absence of a public fund blow up,” says Nelson.

Tabb Group CEO, Larry Tabb says Amaranth’s recent setback underscores a greater concern of the level of risk firms are willing to take and believes a sound set of metrics needs to be in place to keep investors aware of risk levels.

“The investing public needs to have a better understanding of the investment strategies of funds by being able to better analyze the risk that is involved,” says Tabb.

Posted by Tim Clark at 08:31 AM



This is a public forum. CMP Media and its affiliates are not responsible for and do not control what is posted herein. CMP Media makes no warranties or guarantees concerning any advice dispensed by its staff members or readers.

Community standards in this comment area do not permit hate language, excessive profanity, or other patently offensive language. Please be aware that all information posted to this comment area becomes the property of CMP Media LLC and may be edited and republished in print or electronic format as outlined in CMP Media's Terms of Service.

Important Note: This comment area is NOT intended for commercial messages or solicitations of business.


CHECK THIS OUT

Novell Real Time Linux Webcast Series
In order to succeed, companies must be able to respond quickly, deliver superior value and quality of service, and carefully manage their costs. In this series of brief webcasts, you will learn how SUSE Linux Enterprise Real Time from Novell enables organizations to respond quicker by delivering low latencies, deliver increased value with fast response times, and better manage costs.

Events

Live Events:
Navigating the New World of Risk on the Street
October 07, 2008

Bank Systems & Technology's 3rd Annual Executive Summit
October 19-22, 2008

Avoiding the Mobile Blind Spot: Enhanced Security for the Wireless Workplace
October 28, 2008

Buy-Side Trading Summit 2008
November 16-18, 2008

Accelerating Wall Street 2009
March 18, 2009


Web Events:
CEP Beyond the Trading Desk
September 17, 2008

Where the Millionaires Are, What They Want, and the Technology Needed To Serve Them
September 25, 2008


Marketplace

Career Center


Ready to take that job and shove it?

Function:
Information Technology
Engineering
State:


Keyword(s):

Browse By:
State | City
techweb
Online Communities TechWebInformationWeekLight ReadingIntelligent EnterprisebMightyNetwork ComputingDark ReadingDigital LibraryWall Street & Technology
Byte & SwitchNo JitterInternet EvolutionLight Reading's Cable Digital NewsContentinopleUnStrungBank Systems & TechnologyAdvanced TradingInsurance & Technology
Face-to-Face Events
InteropWeb 2.0 ExpoWeb 2.0 SummitVoiceConBlack HatCSISoftwareEntrprise 2.0 ConferenceGTEC
Mobile Business Expo
InformationWeek 500 ConferenceBuy Side Trading XchangeBuy Side Trading SummitBank Executive SummitInsurance Executive SummitTelcoTVEthernet ExpoOptical Expo
Magazines  
InformationWeekWall Street & TechnologyInsurance & TechnologyBank Systems & TechnologyAdvanced TradingMSDNTechNetSmart EnterpriseThe Architecture JournalDatabase Magazine
 
Research & Analyst Services  
Heavy ReadingInformationWeek ReportsInformationWeek Analytics